Avs host Wild in Northwest Division battle

Hockey Betting Lines

02/02/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A key battle in the Western Conference playoff race is on tap tonight in Denver, as the sliding Colorado Avalanche host the Minnesota Wild at the Pepsi Center.

Despite posting just four wins in their last 20 games (4-12-4), the Wild enter tonight holding onto the eighth and final postseason berth in the West with 55 points. Colorado, which has been dealt three straight regulation losses, is just one point behind the Wild in both the conference and Northwest Division standings. The Avs are also tied with Dallas for the conference's ninth seed.

The Avalanche have dropped each of their last three trips to the ice by identical 3-2 scores and the latest setback came Tuesday night in Edmonton. Taylor Hall notched the game-winner early in the third period for the Oilers, as Colorado lost its first game following the All-Star break.

Peter Mueller and Gabriel Landeskog scored for the Avalanche, while Semyon Varlamov stopped 20-of-23 shots to drop his record to 14-16-1 on the season.

"It got better as the game went on; but I guess it was too little, too late," Landeskog said of the Avs, who trailed by a 2-0 score after the first period.

Jean-Sebastien Giguere is expected to get the start in net tonight and the veteran netminder has been far superior to Varlamov this season. Giguere is 12-8-1 with a 2.15 goals-against average and .921 save percentage this year compared to Varlamov's 3.00 GAA and .898 save percentage.

Giguere is 9-11-3 with two ties in his career against Minnesota and he dropped a 3-2 decision to the visiting Wild in Colorado's final game before the break on Jan. 24.

The Wild have taken two of three from Colorado this year and have won five of six overall in the series. Minnesota has also claimed three straight and six of its last seven in the Mile High City.

Tonight marks the start of a four-game homestand for the Avs, who are 14-12-0 as the host this year. Minnesota is beginning a three-game road trip this evening and is 11-12-4 as the guest.

Minnesota scored the first three goals Tuesday against visiting Nashville, but still wound up losing a 5-4 regulation decision. The Wild also held a 4-1 lead early in the third period, but the Predators scored four unanswered and Mike Fisher won it for Nashville with just 21 seconds left in regulation.

With 20.8 seconds left in regulation, Fisher grabbed an errant pass near the boards by the right circle and flicked a shot towards the net that slipped through Josh Harding's pads for the game-winner.

"It was an awful goal, probably one of the worst I've given up in my life," said Harding. "No excuses. That one's on me."

Harding stopped 25-of-30 shots in the loss, while Dany Heatley led the offense with two goals and an assist. Cal Clutterbuck and Kyle Brodziak also netted goals for Minnesota.

On the injury front, star forward Matt Duchene (knee) is out indefinitely for Colorado. Minnesota captain Mikko Koivu is still sidelined with a separated shoulder, but is nearing a return, as is fellow forward Guillaume Latendresse, who has been out with a concussion since Dec. 14. Koivu has missed the last five games after injuring his left shoulder in St. Louis on Jan. 14.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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