Big Sky - It's the Grizzlies again

NCAA Football Betting Lines

08/22/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If any conference in the FCS is ready for some football, it is the Big Sky Conference.

The off-season was one of change for coaches and several unpleasant off-field incidents at a couple of the leagues more prominent schools. Instead of talk about returning players, the off-season talk in the Big Sky consisted mostly of criminal arrests at Montana State and Montana and the hiring of a prominent name for Portland State.

Portland State stole much of the football-related attention with the hiring of former NFL coach Jerry Glanville and the return of legendary Mouse Davis as the Vikings offensive coordinator. But there are also new coaches at Idaho State (ex-Central Washington coach John Zamberlin takes over for Larry Lewis) and Sacramento State (veteran Juco coach Marshall Sperbeck replaces Steve Mooshagian).

Montana is looking to extend its record-setting string of 14 consecutive playoff berth and most observers would be hard pressed to predict an end to that impressive streak. The Grizzlies are not only a strong favorite to repeat as outright Big Sky champions (the Grizzlies have won or shared the past nine league titles and 12 of the past 14), but are also among a small handful of teams that is viewed as a potential national championship game participant.

Portland State, Northern Arizona, Montana State, Eastern Washington and Weber State all have the talent to make runs at the playoffs and a league title, but all have big questions to answer to reach such lofty heights.

MONTANA - There are not many programs in FCS where a loss in the semifinals of the playoffs is considered a failure, but such is the case for a program that has won two national titles and been to five championship games in the past 12 years.

"The expectations of our fan base is out of whack," said Montanas fifth-year coach Bobby Hauck. "But that is not necessarily a bad thing."

Fans in Missoula are excited about the return of senior Lex Hilliard at running back and 18 of 24 starters altogether. Hilliard, who should break Montanas all-time career rushing record this year, missed all of the 2006 campaign after Achilles tendon surgery.

The Grizzlies have one of the top offensive lines in FCS smashing open holes for Hilliard, including All-Americans Cody Balogh and Colin Dow and Oklahoma transfer J.D. Quinn. Dow will miss several games to start the season after breaking his foot in a motorcycle accident.

The biggest concern will again be at quarterback, where junior Cole Bergquist takes over for Josh Swogger, who graduated after one inconsistent year in maroon and silver. Bergquist has started several games in his first two years, but must limit his mistakes.

As usual, Montana has a strong stable of receivers, led by Eric Allen, Ryan Bagley and Craig Chambers, who combined for 147 receptions, 17 touchdowns and 2,167 yards last season.

Defensively, the Grizzlies should be among the top units in FCS with defensive end and Buchanan Award favorite Kroy Biermann leading the way. Biermann, now a senior, has 18.5 career sacks, including 11 last year.

Senior Tyler Joyce heads up a good group of linebackers, while junior Colt Anderson and senior Torry Thomas provide support in a hard-hitting secondary.

Dan Carpenter is one of the top kickers in the country (24-of-30 field goals and 41-of-45 PATs for 113 points) and doubles as the teams punter.

PORTLAND STATE - Even before Glanvilles arrival, the Vikings were among the top FCS teams. With the ex-Houston Oilers and Atlanta Falcons coach, the Portland community has become more excited about football than ever.

The Vikings must adapt to new offensive and defensive systems, but they have to personnel to challenge beyond the Big Sky.

Colorado transfer Brian White inherits the reins of the offense from graduated Sawyer Smith and should be able to pick up the run and shoot offense quickly.

The new attack should be perfect for 230-pound fullback Bobby McClintock, who will be the lone back in the run and shoot set. Tremayne Kirkland and Kenneth Mackins are the top returning receivers. Mackins was an all-conference returman last season.

Brennan Carvalho was a consensus All-American last season. The versatile 6-1, 310-pound senior moves from guard to center. The Vikings lost another potential All-American on the line, Peter St. John, to academics.

The biggest returner, however, is offensive coordinator Mouse Davis, who served as Portland States head coach from 1975-80 and went 42-24 as the Vikings smashed tons of NCAA scoring and passing records.

Glanville takes a hands-on approach to defense and he is happy to have senior outside linebacker Jordan Senn to lead what should again be a topflight unit. Other standouts include senior defensive end Cole Smith and safety Michael Dorsey.

In one of the most appealing Big Sky games of the season, Portland State travels to Montana on Nov. 3.

NORTHERN ARIZONA - The Lumberjacks have enough talent that three of its players were named to preseason All-American teams, wide receiver Alex Watson and cornerbacks K.J. Gerard and Ricky Wilson, but it is the All-American that doesnt return who is getting most of the attention.

Quarterback Jason Murrietta placed second in the Payton Award balloting last season after completing a phenomenal NAU career as the four-year starter. Lance Kriessian wont be another Murrietta, but he should keep the high- powered attack functioning at a potent level.

Watson (82 catches, 1,017 yards and 15 TDs) may be the most dangerous target in FCS and he is joined by some other talented pass-catchers in Skyler Moore and Kenny Mahone. Alex Henderson was the newcomer of the year in the Big Sky after rushing for 1,016 yards as a freshman.

The Lumberjacks averaged 34.4 points per game, but gave up 27 last season. Coach Jerome Souers will hope to develop a better pass rush to help a defense that gave up almost as many yards as Murrietta threw for in 2006.

MONTANA STATE - The Bobcats return some solid talent, but the firing of popular coach Mike Kramer has spiraled MSU into confusion. Facing character questions after the arrest of several former players and academic concerns, the Bobcats hired straight-shooting Rob Ash from Drake.

Ash is 176-99-5 in 27 years as a head coach, including 125-63-2 in 18 years at Drake. But he takes over a Bobcat team that has plenty of uncertainty.

Coming off a quarterfinal appearance in the playoffs and the schools first postseason win since its 1984 national championship year, the Bobcats were riding a crest of emotion before the off-field problems stole the limelight.

The Bobcats return two quarterbacks with starting experience, Jack Rolovich and Cory Carpenter and surprising runner Aaron Mason. But MSU lost its best player in receiver/returman Michael Jefferson and must develop both a young receiving corps and rebuild the offensive line.

There are fewer questions on defense, with tackle Aaron Papich and linebackers Bobby Daly and Epikopo King. Cornerback Kory Austin anchors the secondary, but the absence of experienced safeties could be a concern.

EASTERN WASHINGTON - After back-to-back playoff appearances and shares of the Big Sky title, the Eagles fell back to earth with a heavy thud, losing five of its first six games in 2006 on the way to a 3-8 season. The start provided a wake- up call for coach Paul Wulff and EWU.

The Eagles found it difficult to replace 2005 Payton Award-winning quarterback Erik Meyer and All-American wide receiver Eric Kimble. Ryan Cole struggled in the backfield with just 407 yards and a 3.4 average.

Matt Nichols struggled at quarterback as a redshirt freshman, but should improve on a season where he passed for 1,749 yards and threw more interceptions (17) than touchdowns (eight). Tony Davis is the top returning receiver (48 catches) and is also an excellent returman.

The offensive line is highlighted by two All-Americans, Matt Alfred and Rocky Hanni. Alexis Alexander is one of the leagues best fullbacks.

Defense has always been a concern for EWU and it will be the same in 2007. Safety Bryan Jarrett and defensive end Greg Peach will be relied on as leaders.

WEBER STATE - With Ron McBride apparently nearing the end of a successful college coaching career, the Wildcats have put most of their eggs in the transfer basket this season. The question is whether it will make Weber State a playoff team, or a middle of the pack squad in the BSC?

Top on the list of transfers is former Alabama quarterback Jimmy Barnes, who has made an immediate impact with the Wildcats. But Barnes will need help to improve an offense that averaged just 18 points per game in last years 4-7 campaign.

Trevyn Smith is back after rushing for a conference-leading 1,129 yards and a 5.5 average as a freshman. David Hale, a 6-6, 305-pound tackle, anchors the line. Junior Bryant Eteutai was an all-conference kick returner.

On defense, the Wildcats will build around three All-BSC performers, junior defensive end Pate Moleni, senior outside linebacker Brad Stewart and senior safety Ty Sparrow.

IDAHO STATE - The Bengals were picked to contend for the BSC title in 2006, but instead stumbled to a 2-9 record - losing their final six games. That led to the firing of Larry Lewis and the hiring of Zamberlin.

Zamberlin was 63-41 in 10 years at Central Washington, including wins over Eastern Washington and Montana State. The six-year playing veteran of the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs is a no-nonsense guy, cut in the mold of former coach Bill Parcells.

The best news for the new coach is the return of running back Josh Barnett, who was second in the conference with 1,117 yards rushing last season. The Bengals also return a topflight receiver in Eddie Thompson, who caught 27 passes before missing four games with injury.

George Yarno, a tough, 6-0, 275-pound senior, is one of the top centers in FCS. Another weapon is All-BSC senior punter Dan Zeidman.

Defensive standouts will include linebacker Ryan Phipps, tackle Viliami Akoteu, end Joel Janke and cornerback D.J. Clark, but ISU needs to improve a group that allowed 30 points per game last season.

SACRAMENTO STATE - The Hornets appeared to be making positive strides when they finished 4-4 in conference, their best mark since 2000. But a bunch of close losses led to a 4-7 overall record and the end of the Steve Mooshagian era.

Sperbeck brings a strong track record from Foothill Community College in California, where he was 109-53 in 15 seasons and failed to win eight games or more just once. He was also 8-0 in bowl games, but inherits an SSU squad that scored just 15 points per game, while giving up 28.

There are some key components on defense returning, with both junior middle linebacker Cyrus Mulitalo and senior safety Brent Webber both making preseason All-America teams. Defensive ends James Henderson and Mike Brannon and defensive tackle Dallas Mauga are also returning all-conference players.

Mulitalo had a conference-leading 120 tackles and Webber led the league with six interceptions.

On offense, however, the Hornets need more work. Sophomore tackle Jordan Hunter is the only returning All-BSC performer on the squad.

Tyreece Jacks, a transfer from City College of San Francisco, could bring life to the running game. Senior Crosby Wehr, who threw just nine passes last year, is the most experienced quarterback.

NORTHERN COLORADO - The Bears will try to put distractions behind them this season in Scott Downings second year as coach. Last year, UNC went 1-10, with a one-point win over Texas State being all that kept the Bears from being winless.

There was also the off-field cloud of punter Mitch Kozad, who was convicted of stabbing starting punter Rafael Mendoza.

Northern Colorado had problems on both sides of the ball in the Bears first BSC season, averaging less than 12 points and allowing 34 per game.

The defense should be easier to improve with linebackers Cristian Sarmento and Asa Mattthews and defensive end Vinny Pallone back to build around.

The task is more difficult on offense, with honorable mention all-conference center Jake Gable and receiver Andy Birkel returning. Birkel, a transfer from Nebraska, led the team in receptions (50), yardage (907) and TDs (10) missed last season with a knee injury, but was an All-Great West Conference pick in 2005.

Predicted Order of Finish 1. Montana 2. Portland State 3. Northern Arizona 4. Montana State 5. Eastern Washington 6. Weber State 7. Idaho State 8. Sacramento State 9. Northern Colorado.

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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends

We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS.  Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned.  For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go.  As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190).  Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.   By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet.  For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction.  On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later.  Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick.  Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com

New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors

Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
 New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season. 
 
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times. 
 
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons

Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season. 
 
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers

In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS. 
 
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”.  With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit.  Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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