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09/04/2010 -
LUBBOCK, Texas (AP) -June Jones knows the order is a tall one for his improving SMU squad.
The Mustangs will open the season Sunday in Lubbock as the first opponent for new Texas Tech coach Tommy Tuberville, who vowed when he took over in January not to dismantle the Red Raiders' dizzyingly successful aerial attack.
Facing a coach - and a program - eager for a win in the post-Mike Leach era, SMU also faces some daunting history. Texas Tech has won the past 13 meetings between the two former Southwest Conference rivals dating to 1989.
Jones, who in his second season last year led SMU to the most wins (8-5) since 1984, said the Mustangs will need to be sharp. After going 1-11 in Jones' first year, SMU's seven-win improvement was the largest for any team in Division I last season.
``We feel like we have to go in there and play our best football game to win,'' Jones said. ``We have our hands full, obviously. I think they are a very talented team.''
Tuberville is hoping so - particularly on defense, long maligned and a stepchild to Leach's passing offense that had most of his quarterbacks leading the nation in passing. Linebacker Bront Bird said the Tech defense is more complicated then in previous years.
``In the past, a lot of guys were satisfied knowing what they were supposed to do, but you are a better player when you understand the whole scheme of what everyone is doing, as far as coverages,'' Bird said.
Jones thinks Texas Tech's offense, behind starting quarterback Taylor Potts, will run more.
``But that doesn't mean they're not going to throw it 60 times a game,'' Jones said. ``It's not going to be just like Mike Leach's offense.''
It's Texas Tech's first game in Lubbock since 1999 without Leach on the sideline. University officials fired Leach Dec. 30, two days after suspending him amid allegations he mistreated a receiver with a concussion. Leach has denied he mistreated the player and has a lawsuit pending against the school.
Tuberville, who is beginning his 15th year as head coach after stints at Auburn and Mississippi, said he thinks the game will answer many questions.
``I wanted everyone to see what this program is about,'' he said. ``We are still here and we are going to be able to throw the football, run it and play defense and play special teams.''
Is he nervous about the game?
``I'm more nervous for the players and what they're doing and if they can get it done,'' Tuberville said. We'll go into this game knowing we've pretty much done everything we can. We'll be a little nervous about execution and how we handle certain situations.''
SMU will rely on quarterback Kyle Padron, who took over at midseason as a freshman last year and went 5-1 as a starter, throwing for a school-record 460 yards and two touchdowns in the 45-10 win over Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl. That game ended a 25-year bowl drought for the program that took years to rebound from the NCAA's so-called death penalty.
``I think his best football is ahead of him, certainly,'' Jones said of Padron. ``We just have to keep getting good around him. I think we have a guy that can take us to the promised land.''
A seasoned offensive line will be protecting him, and Tuberville said a strong pass rush will be ``huge'' for the Red Raiders defense.
``First we have to stop the run,'' he said. ``The quarterback is a young guy, who has had some success. He's a pretty seasoned veteran but hopefully we can give him some problems.''
He doesn't expect much different from Jones, who last week got a contract extension expected to keep him at the school through the 2014 season.
``He's coached in pro and college and he's does the same things,'' Tuberville said. ``He hasn't done anything different. We'll be able to prepare on what he has done.''
In two weeks, Texas Tech hosts No. 5 Texas - a huge Big 12 test for Tuberville, who said he won't hold back anything this week for that game.
``You'll see it all (Sunday). You need to run things to see if you can execute,'' he said. ``We'll always add one or two things. I think we have a good game plan.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
<< Dodge faces win-or-else season at North Texas
DENTON, Texas (AP) -Todd Dodge is no longer the hot shot high school coach hired to energize the North Texas football program.After 31 losses in three years, he's just trying to hang on to his job and avoid becoming another case study in why it's so
<< Rockies extend San Diego's losing streak to eight
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Giambi and Troy Tulowitzki each hit a
two-run homer, as the Colorado Rockies dealt San Diego an eighth consecutive
defeat, 4-3, in the opener of a three-game series.
Aaron Cook (5-8), who was acti
<< A's blank struggling Angels behind Gonzalez
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cliff Pennington and Kevin Kouzmanoff each
homered during a six-run seventh, as the Oakland Athletics dominated the
Angels, 8-0, in the opener of a three-game series.
Gio Gonzalez (13-8) tossed si
<< Giants trade for Sage Rosenfels
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Giants have found a
backup quarterback after acquiring Sage Rosenfels from the Minnesota Vikings
on Friday.
The trade also saw running back and return specialist Darius Reynaud h
Georgia holds A.J. Green out of opener >>
ATHENS, Ga. (AP) -Georgia star receiver A.J. Green is being held out of the Bulldogs' opening game against Louisiana-Lafayette.Georgia spokesman Claude Felton says Green will miss Saturday's game for the No. 23 Bulldogs pending a ruling from the NCA
Scorching Yanks seek eight straight win in test with Jays >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- The New York Yankees have solved just about all their
problems during a seven-game winning streak that matches the team's longest of
the season. The defending world champions will now turn their attention
towards getting Jav
Red Sox, White Sox to begin set with double dip >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- After mother nature delayed the opening of this important
weekend set, the Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox will renew acquaintances
with a day-night doubleheader that begins this afternoon from Fenway Park.
The arriv
Mets turn to rookie in hopes of besting Cubs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jenrry Mejia makes his first major league start this
afternoon, when the New York Mets continue their three-game series with the
Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.
The 20-year-old right-hander made the Mets with a terrific spr
American Idol Betting Season 6 Strategies
It's that time of year folks. Betting on American Idol Season 9. And we have plenty of American Idol Season 6 strategies appearing below. With the Top 24 finalists revealed, online gambling sites will be offering betting odds on each of them, including MySportsbook.com.
No other “event” has been growing as fast as wagering on American Idol. It has turned into a huge betting event with reasonably high limits and all sorts of profit-making potential for sharp bettors. Last year, MySportsbook.com experienced unprecedented traffic as a result of the American Idol betting craze.
Every week there will be odds to win American Idol, various elimination props and contestant versus contestant match-ups at the MySportsbook.com website.
Whether a fan of America’s top-rated show or watching only because of a wife or girlfriend, here are some of basic strategies to use when betting American Idol.
Odds to Win
There are a few things to consider when looking for the right win bet. First off, remember that this bet is for the long haul. Many people make the mistake of picking the performer who sang the best the previous week. This strategy leads to an underlay situation – betting a price, which is less than what it should be.
All Idol contestants struggle at some point in the competition, so you should always look for value. In last year’s competition alone, two performers who had some of the best performances early in the series were subsequently bet down to low prices - Lisa Tucker and Ace Young. After just a few weeks, Tucker had already been eliminated, while Young quickly became a huge long shot to win America’s largest talent search.
A better strategy is to look for performers who don’t necessarily get the praise from the judges, but show flashes of the talent necessary to go the distance.
Another important thing to remember when betting any contestant to win is the demographic breakdown of the voters, the viewing public and potential future CD purchasers. Unlike sporting events, American Idol is not decided on the field of play – it’s decided by the American public under the guiding influence of the shows producers.
Understand that the great state of Alabama has a mighty edge when it comes to American Idol.
Therefore, to be successful betting on American Idol, put any personal opinions or prejudices aside and think like the majority of the voting public. Remember that the typical voter is young, female and quite often, Southern.
If a contestant cannot appeal to this demographic, no matter how much talent he or she possesses, they’ll struggle for votes. Looks, demeanor and charisma are extremely important. And it’s no coincidence that every Idol winner so far has hailed from a Southern state.
Elimination Props
Every week MySportsbook.com anticipates offering a prop on who’ll be eliminated from the show each Wednesday night. A suggestion to handicap this is to gauge an overall feel for who’s the least popular contestant left in the competition. Generally the least popular performers have recently appeared in the bottom three and will have been the target of repeated criticism from the judges.
Last year, resources included dialidol.com and votefortheworst.com. Dialidol.com measures the volume of each contestant’s voting line. While by no means a perfect science, it does give a good indication of who is generating votes and who isn’t. Meanwhile, votefortheworst.com is a site that attempts to build support for the worst competitor to keep them in the competition for ‘entertainment’ value. The site has a proven track record of keeping performers around who most feel should have been voted off a long time ago.
Contestant vs. Contestant Match-ups
The best strategy for doing well on match-ups is to assess how close either of the contestants is to being eliminated. If neither is expected to be voted off of the show in the coming weeks, the value is almost always on the underdog. If both are expecting an imminent exit in the near future, the favorite in the match-up might offer value.
Watch for American Idol betting odds on each of the contestants shortly and good luck with these American Idol betting strategies.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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